As Oscar Night is swiftly approaching, I thought I'd share with you my predictions of who will win the awards. I've also explained my reasoning for a few of them, especially some that will raise some eyebrows. I also want to address the fact that I didn't see many new movies this year, and the few I did see, well, didn't have much awards presence, so most of these are educated guesses based on the buzz by other film critics. However, I can say that Tom Hanks was terribly snubbed this year, especially for his fantastic performance in Captain Phillips, and Emma Thompson was also completely robbed of a nomination in her grounded, tear-jerking performance in Saving Mr. Banks, a movie that, I think, should have been nominated for more than Best Original Score (we'll get to that part later). Now without further ado, here we go!
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
A satire of sorts on human obsession with technology, this screenplay has received widespread recognition since the premiere of Her. Although the concept alone is interesting, I think that the reported realistic aspects of it will earn Spike Jonze a screenwriting Oscar over Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine.
BEST WRITING--ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
This is one category I feel unsure about, like I did last year with Lincoln vs. Argo. Before Midnight was the first screenplay that came up this year that received vast critical acclaim. At the same time, Slave's screenplay has been lauded as well, in particular for keeping true to its subject's account; the recentness of Slave may earn it the prize, but I'm going to root for the underdog here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom
BEST DOCUMENTARY--SHORT SUBJECT
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND EDITING
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant que de tout perde (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitaako mun kaikki hoitta? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Happy" from Despicable Me 2 (Pharrell Williams)
"Let It Go" from Frozen (Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez)
"The Moon Song" from Her (Karen Orzolek)
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (U2)
This is possibly the best year for Oscar nominated songs, at least compared to last year, where "Skyfall" was the plain and obvious winner, with "Suddenly" from Les Miserables still struggling to be remembered today. This year, we get something different: a gospel song (which has been getting an absurd amount of radio attention), a Broadway-style ballad, a soulful love song, and an inspirational song to commemorate the history of one of the most influential men of his time (unfortunately, the soft-spoken Christian neo-hymn was disqualified for inappropriate campaigning). While initially I felt Frozen was the clear-cut winner for this category, my research on "Ordinary Love" following the Golden Globe snag showed me that "Ordinary Love" was a much more heartfelt, meaningful, moving song than "Let It Go," which is why I give my nod to the guys behind the Spider-Man musical. Well played.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief, John Williams
Gravity, Steven Price
Her, Arcade Fire (William Butler and Owen Pallett)
Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman
And the Academy decided that last year they would celebrate music and the movies. Someone jumped the gun because these are absolutely incredible songs and scores by wonderful musicians. That said, there has to be a winner, and I'm not expecting a Skyfall-Zero Dark Thirty tie again. So I have to say that, ultimately, Newman's score for Banks, a movie I loved, isn't very memorable, at least compared to the Poppins songs surrounding it; it won't win--it's great when you listen to it, but I couldn't hum it to you if you asked me. Arcade Fire's score for Her, while plenty beautiful, I think, based off the sample I heard, doesn't pack enough of a punch to beat Williams, Desplat, or Price--the best three scores chosen, in my opinion. Williams's score is haunting and divine, like his Schindler's List work; Desplat has a perfect score for a dramedy, mixing the lightheartedness of his King's Speech work and the somberness similar to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows; and Price's score is mysterious, intense, and moving when needed. However, I was moved more by Williams's score, so I feel it's going to win, especially after too many snubs (Life of Pi's score was better than that of Lincoln? Really? REALLY?!?!?)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
I will be open and say, "I have seen none of these movies." If I did, Frozen would be the obvious choice. People say it's a return to form for Disney, emulating the greatness that came out of the Disney Renaissance. But then there's one film that was nominated that's keeping me back from saying it will be Frozen. Many anime fans will know a man named Hayao Miyazaki, who made acclaimed films like Howl's Moving Castle and Princess Mononoke. He's supposed to be the best of his kind, and after years of acclaimed animation work, he's going into retirement. My thoughts are that, to commemorate a long line of great works, the Academy will give his World War II film, The Wind Rises, the Oscar over what many consider the best animated film they've seen.
BEST FILM EDITING
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi? Really? It was his first role, great, but...really? He got nominated AND TOM HANKS DIDN'T?? Anyway, Leto, from the clips I've seen, played a very convincing transwoman.... Moving on.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
BEST DIRECTING
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
I predict a Life of Pi scenario this year. Because Ben Affleck wasn't nominated as Best Director last year to accompany his Best Picture Argo, the award for Directing would go to someone who worked on a different film. My guess from the start was Steven Spielberg for Lincoln because Spielberg's a legend, and Lincoln wasn't droll, but inspired. To my shock, I was wrong, and Ang Lee won for his work on Life of Pi. Obviously, this referred to his ability to craft scenes with nothing but an actor and a raft, and still make it believable after post-production. Even though McQueen should probably win to accompany 12 Years a Slave (get to that in a second), I think Cuarรณn will end up walking away with the award due to making Gravity's atmosphere (no pun intended) completely believable, to the point where one didn't know where reality began, and when it ended.
BEST PICTURE:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Based off a formula I made last year, I predict that the period film 12 Years a Slave will walk home with Best Picture. Reportedly the most moving film of the year, Slave has swept many awards, including the Best Motion Picture--Drama award at the Golden Globes last month. Going into this ceremony, people will be looking at the Big Three: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity, for its power, its entertainment, and its thrill, respectively. I don't see Hustle winning due to the fact that while it was received well by critics, a good amount of people, some critics included, found the film to be lacking in some regard. Gravity, while reportedly the most intense movie of the year, it may be too effects-grounded to garner the Grand Prize on Oscar night. Take Star Wars for example: The film was revolutionary at the time, and it may very well be one of the best adventure science fiction films ever made, but in '77, it lost Best Picture to the Woody Allen classic Annie Hall. From what I've heard, Gravity may not have enough Oscar bait to lure in the metaphorical fish. Therefore, the consistently positive response to 12 Years a Slave should catapult it to one of the most revered spots in cinema.
Last year, I got 13 out of 24 predictions right. How will I do this year? Comment below and tell me your thoughts on who will win the Oscars?
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